Book Review
Understanding Earthquakes
M M Bajaj, Ibrahim and Vijayraj Singh
H. B. Prakashan, Indore
A Plea to Stop Animal Slaughter, Via Science Now!
This book is a plea to stop slaughter of animals, birds, and (even) fish because it will avert earthquakes. It is difficult to say what prompted the authors – all physicists of fame and high learning – to enter the rough and tumble of geology and that, too, of earthquakes. But, then, science has its own angularities. After all, the high priest of modern science, Albert Einstein, also meddled with the science of geology by propagating EPW (Einsteinian Pain Waves) theory.
Whatever one's predilections, it has to be conceded that the idea is unique. And novelty is not the only argument in favour of the book which is actually based on paper(s) read by the authors. The BIS (Bajaj-Ibrahim-Singh) Theory is claimed to be a further development on EPW of Einstein. The book claims it is possible to forecast earthquakes which are caused by excessive killing of animals. Now either it is all based on 'real' correlations or is a set of spurious ones. The answer would depend upon whether, and a priori, one is willing to subscribe to the theory whose validity is all but proven so far. And to that extent, the book is truly novel and hence absolutely and eminently readable. After all, science still does not have even the modicum of an answer as to why the earthquakes happen and how they can be predicted with reasonable accuracy. The book certainly fills the gaps in the science of seismology which is still a nascent science.
The argument, otherwise highly technical and full of scientific jargon, given so lucidly and simply in the abstract of the book is quite unique to say the least. It is based on the, "reports received" from different parts of the world that several earthquakes have the history of millions of animals being butchered in or near the high risk seismic zones. Hence the suspicion and the scientific inquiry that organising the butchering of animals in the abattoirs worldwide has something to do with the quakes. The book claims to have studied the complex role of nociceptive waves (or the waves generated by the immense noise by the animals on the verge of being butchered) in shear-wave splitting which is related to seismic anisotropy. This splitting is associated with the cracks in the crust aligned by stress. The origin of earthquakes due to the interaction of nociception waves with gravity waves is critically examined in the book. An earthquake of 8 Richter occurs only when the resonant frequency is extremely high. Low frequency resonances lead to earthquakes of 0.1 to 0.2 Richter. Low frequency resonances are hardly felt or realised by the ordinary people. High frequency resonances (originating due to the slaughter of millions of animals daily for years together) lead to powerful singularities with the gravity waves.
Dying Animals Cause Acoustic Anisotropy
Now the point which the authors have tried to make is that acoustic anisotropy leads to a very strong anisotropic stress on a rock. The daily butchering of thousands of animals continually for several years generates acoustic anisotropy due to Einsteinian Pain Waves (EPW) emitted by dying animals. And the accumulated acoustic anisotropy is found to be related with the stress history of rocks.
The book claims that since the EPW travel a great distance with time, abattoirs of one country may lead to havoc in another country. But then comes a final "warning" from the scientists laced with spirituality: '...we should close down all the abattoirs (visible and hidden) of the world. Our environmental problems are responsible for the mega-event of earthquakes. ' If this had come from a religious saint, people would have taken it at face value. But, coming from scientists of some fame, the approach needs a careful analysis sans religiosity which is a tall order given the Indian context.
The central theme of the book that shear wave splitting occurs possibly due to aligned fluid-filled inclusions and abattoirs, is open to question, and needs a further in-depth study, which the authors claimed to have done with a promise that a fresh book of over 600 pages is coming out shortly on this very aspect. However, the authors have been fair to mention, if not examine in the introductary part, all existing hypotheses on the subject though finally, they settle down on their own hypothesis of large-scale abattoir activity being the causative agents for major earthquakes. In chapter 2 they move to the complex theory which is a set of mathematical formulae which may not be of much interest to a person not properly initiated in mathematical and statistical mumbo jumbo.
Latur Ealthquake Explained
It is "Experimental Aspects" in chapter 3 which is absolutely revolutionary and candid. After preliminary observation as to how the nociception waves (EPW) interact with the earth's natural rhythmatic vibrations and lead to responses which are extremely powerful (of the order of 10 40 MW) causing crack density (CD) which is directly proportional to EPW – itself a result of 'animals butchered daily' the authors come straight to the most recent of the Indian calamities – the Latur (Khillari) earthquake. And from here it is a non-stop journey to earthquakes at various places. Indian earthquakes of Utterkashi, Assam follow the Latur tragedy. Then comes America where the earthquakes of Northridge (1994), Long Beach (California – 1933), Landers (California -1992), San Francisco (1906), New Madrid (Missouri – 1811-12) have been mentioned. Russia is next where Neftegorsk (1995) finds a major mention. Kanto (1923), Nobi (1891), Kita-Tango. (1927), Sankiru Tsunami (1933), Shizuoka (1935), Tonankal (1944), Nankai (1948), Fukui (1948), Off-Tokachi (1952), Kjta-Mino (1961), Nigata (1964), Off-Tokachi (1968), Kobe (1995) – all of Japan – have also been described not so much as a part of scientific inquiry but to demonstrate the pattern and familiarity of the authors with what they are talking about.
Some of the data accumulated from aforementioned places, juxtaposed with the famous study by Nemichand has been put to productive use by the authors to make a comprehensive table of strong earthquakes of the 20th century and the date from 3,937 ,,officially recognised major abbatoirs" in different parts of India to establish further the hypothesis proprounded that earthquakes are caused by large scale animal slaughter. Some of the obiter dicta by the authors are certainly open to serious question.
The "Theory" will be Tested
The hypothesis propounded in the book will be testable very shortly when in the wake of "Mad Cow" disease afflicting cows in England resulting in an overall ban on exports of beef from England to other European Union countries there is a proposal for the 'destruction' of an estimated 4.5 million to 11 million cows in England. Whatever the number of cows destroyed eventually it will surely be the first time in the world anywhere that so many animals will be killed at one go. And going by the BIS Theory it must (automatically) produce a major earthquake. And going by the same, BIS analysis, England or at least neighbouring Europe can hope to have the biggest jolt in history - not figuratively but literally – in the shape of an earthquake.
From the Book
In the words of Nils Bohr, 'Prediction is difficult, especially of the future.' Despite this, one of the objectives of the present investigation is to explore the possibility of earthquake prediction based on well defined hard core principles.
Mathematicians and scholars can predict the tides. Then, why do they have so much trouble in predicting earthquakes? Accurate tables of the time of high or low tide can be worked out months or even years ahead. Earthquake forecasts often go wrong within a few days, sometimes within a few hours. People are accustomed to the difference. They are not surprised when a heat wave turns out to be a blizzard. In contrast, if the tide table predicted low tide but the beach was under water, there would probably be a riot. Of course, the two systems are different. The mechanism of earthquakes is extremely complex. It involves following parameters: (1) air pressure, (2) tectonic plate movement, (3) Einsteinian pain wave intensity, (4) geographical location, (5) local rate of killing of animals, (6) underground nuclear testing, (7) faultlines in the rock, (8) volcanic activity, etc. Compared to earthquakes, tides are much simpler, because they can be easily predicted.
We speak of the unpredictable aspects of earthquakes just as if we were talking about rolling dice or letting an air balloon loose to observe its erratic path as the air is ejected. Since there is no clear relationship between cause and effect, such phenomenon are said to have random elements. Yet there was little reason to doubt that precise predictability could, in principle, be achieved. This fundamental randomness has come to be called chaos.
